Since Russia invaded his country three years ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has weathered a military assault on his capital, assassination plots, corruption scandals in his government, political infighting and ominous setbacks in his army’s war against Russia.
He had enough support from the Ukrainians to accompany him every time.
Now, with Donald J. Trump in the White House, Zelensky faces a new challenge: maintaining good relations with the country’s most important ally and a president he once despised and questioned military aid.
Mr. Trump’s arrival comes at a perilous time for Mr. Zelensky domestically. The surge in popularity he had seen early in the war—his approval rating was about 90 percent—was declining sharply. The latest opinion polls show support falling to nearly 50%, and even lower in polls measuring his popularity against potential rivals if elections are held following a ceasefire agreement with Russia.
A new problem point has emerged for Mr. Zelensky: the revival of political opposition in Ukraine, driven by the prospect of a ceasefire and elections that might soon follow. His opponents are also emboldened by the barrage of criticism that Mr. Trump and his aides are directing at Mr. Zelensky.
Two opponents who ran against Mr. Zelensky in the 2019 Ukrainian election — former President Petro Poroshenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko — have reached out to members of Mr. Trump’s team. Ms. Tymoshenko traveled to Washington to attend some opening events on Monday.
Mr. Zelensky did not attend the ceremony. He had said that he would not travel to Washington unless Mr. Trump invited him.
“He believes in the one-man show, but it doesn’t work,” Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of parliament for the opposition European Solidarity party, said of Mr. Zelensky’s role as the face of the Ukrainian resistance after the Russian invasion in 2022. More multilateralism would help the war effort, he said in an interview: “We are not Russia.”
Mr. Zelensky rallied his people and allied countries during the war with nightly videos and frequent trips abroad. But beyond that, he isolated himself in an increasingly narrow circle of loyal aides, restricted access to opposition figures and often ignored their advice, Mr. Goncharenko said. He added that the more active opposition that has now emerged will help the war effort.
Certainly no vote is scheduled in Ukraine – or even possible, election experts say – while war rages and the country is under martial law. Russia could disrupt any vote with a missile barrage. Millions of Ukrainians, including soldiers in combat, refugees in Europe and people living under occupation, will risk being deprived of their rights. So, while Ukrainians are fighting for their democracy, they cannot exercise it.
However, opposition figures have not failed to notice how setbacks in the war have diminished Mr. Zelensky’s popularity. Under the constitution, elections must be called after martial law is lifted. Parliament imposed martial law for the first time in February 2022, after the large-scale Russian invasion, and extends it with periodic votes.
By one measure, Mr. Zelensky still has the support of a majority of Ukrainians, albeit a small one: 52% still trust the president, according to a December poll by the Kyiv International Sociological Institute.
But opinion polls focused more narrowly on a hypothetical presidential election show Zelensky trailing the former army chief, Valery Zalozhny, who was dismissed by the president as part of a sweeping overhaul of the military leadership and is now Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain.
A poll by polling agency Leading Legal Initiatives showed Zalozny winning a hypothetical first round of the two-stage election with 24 percent of the vote. Zelensky came in second place with 16%; Ms. Tymoshenko, an opposition figure, came in third place with 12 percent. Neither Mr. Zalozny nor Ms. Tymoshenko have announced their intention to run.
Dwindling support has implications beyond politics for Mr. Zelensky: It could undermine his wartime role as commander-in-chief.
“It is not worth explaining further the catastrophes that could occur in the event of a loss of legitimacy and a breakdown in control,” Anton Hrushitsky, executive director of the Kyiv International Sociological Institute, wrote in an analysis of low approval ratings.
But this did not prevent Trump and members of his entourage from directing sharp criticism at Zelensky. At a rally in September, for example, Trump called Zelensky “the greatest seller in history” for the billions in military aid he received to defend his country.
However, speaking to reporters on Monday after the inauguration, Trump offered a positive assessment of Mr. Zelensky’s openness to settlement talks and one of his harshest assessments yet of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who he said is “destroying Russia.” “With the war.
Mr. Zelensky and his aides have been quick to make inroads with Mr. Trump’s team. The Ukrainian president met with Mr. Trump in New York in September. Andriy Yermak, Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff, met in December on Capitol Hill with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance and the incoming national security adviser, Michael Waltz, who was then a congressman from Florida, according to two people familiar with the meeting.
Mr. Zelensky’s aides have also sought to win his support behind the scenes. Officials in Kiev have discussed the possibility of brokering a deal to buy the Ukrainian language rights to Melania Trump’s book, “Melania,” according to a Ukrainian official familiar with the discussion.
The official said it was unclear whether anyone in the group had communicated with Ms. Trump’s aides or her publisher. He described the discussion as nothing more than a “brainstorming” by Mr. Zelensky’s aides about establishing good relations with Mr. Trump.
On a trip to Washington in December, Mr. Poroshenko spoke with Mr. Waltz, the foreign minister Selection of a national security advisor. Mr. Poroshenko promoted the exchange in a Share Facebook He touted his ties to the Trump team and included photos of himself with Mr. Waltz.
“I have received assurances of the readiness of the new US administration to show leadership on the issue of repelling Russian aggression and establishing a just peace in Ukraine,” he wrote, adding that Mr. Trump’s team “well remembers our cooperation with him during my presidency.” “.
One person who was present said that Mr. Poroshenko exaggerated the importance of the interaction with Mr. Waltz, which occurred in the hallway at an event the two were attending that was not a formal meeting. Poroshenko denied seeking to achieve any political goals during the war.
Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign policy committee and a member of Mr. Zelensky’s political party, said the usual diplomacy for Mr. Trump’s team was to deal with an opposition party.
“Ukraine is a democratic society,” he said. “It’s great to meet the opposition.”
But he claimed that the opposition’s outreach was “mostly about self-promotion and political PR”. Mr. Merezhko has tried to take a different approach to Mr. Trump’s focus on the war: Last fall, he nominated Mr. Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Mr. Merezhko said he did not believe Mr. Trump harbored any deep animosity toward Mr. Zelensky. He said the “greatest salesman” comment could be read as praise.
“In Trump world, that’s a compliment,” he said.