- USD/CAD may be estimated due to the constant uncertainty in trading after China’s tariffs by 100 % on Canadian imports.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney calls for early elections, perhaps by late April or early May 2025.
- The US dollar is fighting amid concerns about the potential slowdown in the American economy.
USD/CAD remains fixed after registering gains in the previous session, as it was circulated about 1.4360 during the Asian hours on Monday. The Canadian dollar (CAD) may face the opposite wind due to the ongoing trade uncertainty.
On Saturday, China announced that it would impose a 100 % tariff on Canadian Canadian oil, oil cakes and peas, along with a 25 % tax on water and pork products from Canada. This step, in response to the definitions made by Canada in October, intensifies trade tensions and adds another dimension to the broader trade conflict that Trump’s tariff policies are largely driven by. The new customs duties were set to become valid on March 20.
Last week, President Trump’s tariff entered 25 % on Canadian and Mexican imports. However, on Thursday, one -month exemption was provided to the goods that comply with the standards of the Trade Agreement in North America, providing some comfort.
In the midst of this background, the speculation that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carne can summon the elections on Monday. While the upcoming federal elections in Canada scheduled for October 20, 2025, they remain an early call, and perhaps in late April or early May 2025.
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lottenic late on Sunday stated that 25 % definitions are unlikely to be delayed on steel and aluminum imports, which are scheduled to enter into force on Wednesday. Definitions apply to US President Donald Trump in February, to imports from the main foreign suppliers, including Canada and Mexico, and the coverage of final metal products, according to Bloomberg.
The US dollar (USD) has a decline due to fears of the potential slowdown in the economy in the United States (the United States). However, the negative side of Greenback can be limited with the high American cabinet revenue.
The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the US dollar for six main currencies, loses the fifth consecutive day, about 103.80 with two years and 10 years on US Treasury bonds of 3.97 % and 4.28 %, respectively, at the time of writing this report.
Questions and answers in Canadian dollars
The main factors that lead the Canadian dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BOC), the price of oil, the largest export in Canada, the health of its economy, inflation and commercial balance, which is the difference between the value of exports in Canada in exchange for its imports. Other factors include market morale-if investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-with positive CAD risks. As its largest commercial partner, the health of the American economy is also a major factor that affects the Canadian dollar.
Canada Bank (BOC) has a major impact on the Canadian dollar by determining the level of interest rates that banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of BOC is to keep inflation by 1-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for CAD. Canada Bank can also use quantitative dilution and tighten it to influence credit conditions, with previous CAD negative and the other positive CAD.
The price of oil is a major factor that affects the value of the Canadian dollar. Petroleum is the largest export in Canada, so the price of oil tends to an immediate effect on the CAD value. In general, if the price of oil rises, the CAD rises, with the increased total demand for the currency. The opposite is the case if the price of oil decreases. The high oil prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance, which also supports CAD.
While inflation was always believed to be a negative factor of the currency because it reduces the value of money, the opposite was already the case in the modern era with the relaxation of capitalist controls across the border. Top inflation tends to lead the central banks to raise interest rates that attract more capital flows from global investors looking for a profitable place to keep their money. This increases the demand for the local currency, which in the case of Canada is the Canadian dollar.
Victory of macroeconomic data evaluates the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian dollar. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing, PMIS, employment services, and consumer morale surveys can affect CAD direction. The strong economy is useful for the Canadian dollar. Not only attracts more foreign investments, but it may encourage Canada Bank to set interest rates, which leads to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, CAD is likely to fall.