Washington – With President Trump’s decision at the last minute to delay the huge definitions of imports from Mexico for at least a month, the United States, or at least postponed, avoid a possible trade war with its greatest partner-the fastest growth.
Delay is good news for California.
Since imports from China have decreased sharply since the first barrage of Trump from the definitions against this country in 2018, almost all this recession was captured by a significant increase in goods from Mexico, according to American trade statistics. Some of this gain is the result of non -multinationals that have turned production from China to Mexico.
China is still leading all countries in sending products to California, but imports from Mexico have increased by 40 % since 2018 while Chinese goods entering California decreased by 25 %. For exports, Mexico is the highest market in California, and Canada is the second rank, before China.
On Monday, Canada won a similar rudeness as Mexico was granted when the United States said it would start for at least a month on a 25 % tariff fee on products from its northern neighbor as well. The deal leaves China only among the three original goals that still face the immediate threat of tariffs, as Trump’s plan was scheduled to enter 10 % on goods from this country in midnight on Tuesday. China was preparing to talk about trade with Trump.
The sudden shift by the White House indicates that Trump’s potential economic threats against allies and others may be largely tactical negotiations and a form of political theater.
The threats are strengthening his image as a difficult hero who does not wander in American interests while avoiding the high consequences that will alienate voters.
Earlier on Monday, American stocks fell and then recovered quickly after Trump confirmed that he would postpone fees on customs duties on Mexico for a month. He said that the delay was based on an agreement with Mexican President Claudia Shinbom that the two countries would take joint measures to combat the flow of fentanel across the American border.
Dow Jones Industry Mepality opened about 500 points after the decrease in stock markets in Asia, led by Japan, overnight. European stocks decreased as well. Dow ended modestly.
But even before the deal with Mexico, the financial markets did not indicate panic, indicating that many were hoping that Trump would be able to retreat or delay his planned tariff, so only because overwhelming fees may suffocate economic growth, lead to high prices and harm jobs.
Before reaching the deal to avoid the customs tariff, Canada announced on Sunday in retaliatory definitions on the United States, targeting agricultural goods and other products in the states led by Republicans to achieve maximum political influence. Mexico and China also said they were preparing counter -measures.
Whether Trump uses a purely customary tariff sword as taking advantage of or intended to use it, it is clear that the United States and its commercial partners enter a period of extreme uncertainty.
If the definitions and counter -measures that their commercial partners expect in the end, there are possible chaos on the border as it appears that many companies and government agencies are not ready to suddenly impose new rules. If this is followed by the trade war, it will undoubtedly be expensive for all aspects, at least in the near future and perhaps the longest.
Besides the major disturbances of the provision of chains, CountriaF will from commercial partners will harm the American exporters. While the customs tariff for American exports of things like alcohol and soy beans will strike the red economies, California will feel pain in sales of slow parts of spare parts and electronics, among other commodities, and marine and logistical industries will be affected up and down. By reducing Chinese charges.
American trade with Mexico, Canada and China reached $ 2.1 trillion in 2023 – or about 42 % of the total with all countries – which practically include each type of products under the sun.
Although Canada and Mexico are more at risk because it depends heavily on exports to the United States, the three North American economies are deeply integrated, especially when it comes to car production and trade in agricultural commodities.
Analysts warn that consumers in the United States will see higher prices in grocery stores within days, and while car stocks and other consumer goods are exhausted, companies are expected to pass the high cost of consumers.
Mexican exports to the United States reached $ 475 billion in 2023, by 13 %, or about 62 billion dollars, to California. Growth in all types of products in many industries came, led by approximately $ 15 billion in transport equipment and $ 13.5 billion in electronic products and products, according to 2023 data.
That year, Mexico shipments to California also included agricultural commodities worth $ 7 billion, 3 billion dollars of machines, and a billion dollars of Mexican oil and gas, and 664 million dollars in clothes, where many Los Angeles companies transported in sewing and cutting jobs in the south of the border .
Canada’s exports to California have decreased in the past two years, but it is still an important resource for oil, gas, food products and transportation equipment.
While the customs tariffs on imports of Canada will harm California, analysts say they are equally more worried about the revenge tariffs, which would harm the main export industries.
Mostly, California exports a mixture of electronics and agricultural commodities to Canada. During November, the total exports last year amounted to $ 17 billion. All the first three categories were electronics such as phones and computers, followed by civilian aircraft, engines and parts, then electric cars, according to the analysis of the trade economy Gok Occonil for American statistics.
He said that California also sent 310 million dollars, 308 million dollars from strawberry and $ 333 million from wine to its northern neighbor. Canada said its employees will include things such as tomatoes, rice, citrus fruits, nuts and wine.
“Interestingly, Ocunel said,” It seems that the wine category that Canada will target is a tariff for wine with the alcohol content that does not exceed 13.7 %.
He added: “I am not sure that the red that is produced in Napa and Sonoma these days are weak.” “This may be the intended pregnancy that the blue condition product is not punished.”
The 10 % definitions on Chinese goods would exacerbate the decline in shipments from China to Los Angeles, the largest seaport in the country.
Sung Won Sohn, Professor of Finance and Economy at Liola Marimaont University, said that the Silicon Valley depends greatly on Chinese electronics, components and manufacturing. High definitions on semiconductors, computer spare parts and smartphones will increase corporate costs such as Apple, Tesla and Intel. He said that many startups dependent on Chinese suppliers, making it difficult to compete.
Many California companies import clothes, furniture and electronics from China. Retailing giants such as TARGET, Walmart and Amazon will face higher costs, and they pass them to consumers. SOHN said that small -based small -cost companies can struggle to remain profitable.