analysis As I have read in many absolute articles, our precious marble land has seen its warmer year since the start of reliable records.
It becomes ugly there. According to the applicant quickly AttributionGlobal warming and a varying twin climate change exacerbates normal weather cycles. What is more ugly is the unchanged truth that it only gets the world WarmIt has also become warmer.
How faster? We will reach that.
The basic logic of attribution science is easy to explain. Take modern Los Angeles firesFor example, who suffered from a wet wet wet tower from the southern United States. First, unusually high rainfall for a few seasons led to more vegetation. Then this dive from the dry weather was unusually followed that absorbed all the aforementioned moisture. One spark on the day you raise it strong and dry, strong Santa Anna wind And – Bov! Forest fires exploded in urban fires.
Will climate change the winds of Santa Anna, which paid Los Angeles fires? This is the jury It is still outside. But does the hot autumn and the climate that were dried from the enlarged vegetation of the neglected rain in the climate in previous years? certainly.
It also made the growing global temperatures ugly for hurricane victims Ida and Helen In America, Hurricane Ghayimi In the Philippines and a series of Huge floods In South Asia. In each of these cases, climate change exacerbation: the warmer air carries more moisture. The warmer oceans provide increasing energy for storms, such as hurricanes and hurricanes. It may not be there more Spring storms, but storms that occur in the world of warming are more powerful, fastest growing, and humid.
The Earth is heated. No argument. This heat exacerbates the harsh weather. No argument. The effects of climate change are no longer a source of concern for the future – the era, which was called some of the words that the climate crisis is on us now. And its driver, global warming, grows at an increasing pace.
To understand the extent and speed of this speed, we turn to another ugliness: data analysis -in particular, the perceptions of large data collections such as those used to create the graph below, which jams 1,460 databases to a month in one way -how to heat the ground, both, is represented, both On the ground or on the surface of the sea, since it began reasonably accurate global measurements in 1880.
Monthly global temperatures since 1880 … Sometimes a simple story takes 1460 databases that you tell. Click for a full decision
This graph is an ugly pile, right? Not, we do not only mean the tangle of the scheme from screaming. We also mean what these annoying lines represent: a fast warming ball, over the past century or so, at least.
But before we analyze the warnings of this scheme, a little explanation about what its colorful screams represent:
- Each horizontal line tracked a monthly temperature for one month.
- Each contract is determined through its color.
- The first year of each contract is determined on the left.
- The first year line for each contract is thicker and in the same color is its other lines for the contract contract.
- 2024 is given its own lines a little.
Follow now? Wonderful – but now things become more complicated.
On the right of the graph, you will see a rising chain of temperatures, from -0.25 ° C (-0.45 ° F) up to 1 ° C (1.8 ° F). These are the axis values for each of the 1460 -degree measurement data points that create the scheme. It indicates to the degree of (intended pun) of the contrast of each average global temperature from 1951 to 1980.
Sharp -eyed Diet The reader will notice that the temperatures in this scheme do not do that Pass The threshold of 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F) specified in Paris Agreement It also avoids height if possible. (Crossing alert: This is not possible.) This is the temperature barrier to which these famous articles mentioned above.
The reason for this contradiction is simple: Various climate analysts use different basis lines to calculate the global temperature. For example, the National Oceanic and Attract Administration of the United States government, also known as Noaa, uses a wide basis line that it generally defines as “Pre -industry period“They explain from the year 1850 to 1900. If you use the foundation line in Noaa, with yes, 2024 over the threshold of 1.5 ° C.
Noa, by the way, Facing employment discounts As part of the demobilization of workers and intended in the White House throughout the federal government.
This data is used from the scheme from which a more conservative data collection, does not start in 1850. It took more than decades until the reliable data completely settled enough to settle on a more accurate basis line conservatively.
However – to Svante Arrhenius For them – do not occupy a meaningless argument around any more reliable foundation line or whether “we have passed 1.5 degrees Celsius!” Newspaper addresses or not accurate. Regardless of the foundation line you choose, it cannot be changed that the Earth is now heating quickly.
Just take a look at an integral graph from the ability to behave. As you can see, temperature readings do not stabilize from 1900 and before that-with the exception of skeptical readings of the 1980s-completely to the middle of the century, when the temperature measurements around the contrast stabilize 0 degrees Celsius matching the foundation line 1951-1980 .
But see above that a noodles doctorate of Squiggly lines gather around the lower third of the scheme, and note that despite the high temperatures in the beginning, the temperatures in the plans were not until 1970, when, as the old proverb says, “Katie, door bar! “
From 1970 until today, the Earth’s temperature was reliably registered as rising very quickly, leaving relatively slow decades in the year 1880 despite the 1960s. Gold January, then joined its right place in the continuous progress up.)
What is more, increasing the temperature accelerates. Notice the amount of the breathing room between horizontal erosion starting in 1970, and how this white space grows over the years.
The ground increases hot, and increases hot. This ugly reality is easily clear when looking at this ugly graph- a planned plan conservatively for increasing global warming based on internationally obtained objective data that is well equipped and carefully seized to calculate abnormal cases of observation and measurement- method deformities.
We can now provide a data -backed answer Old capture line“Is the weather hot here? Or are you just?” The answer that cannot be changed: the atmosphere is really hot here. Dangerous hot. And accelerating this heating increases. ®
Often the expected question
Q: But Rick, if you minimize the graph to display the lines over the centuries, does the land not pass with this ascension and land all the time? Why do you worry a lot about one sparkle now?
A. In the past, we are already running through multi -degree changes, but they took dozens to hundreds of thousands of years* to rotate from one side to another. What we are facing now is a high temperature in temperatures, one is so much that living organisms – like you and me – will not have enough time to adapt, not to mention the development.
* This, of course, if you think the Earth is more than 6000 years.