In announcing that he will not seek a second term, Senator Mitt Romney of Utah emphasized the need for a new generation of leadership in the United States.
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Senator Mitt Romney, a senator from Utah, made the announcement on Wednesday He will not run for re-election in 2024. On the surface, the electoral impact of Romney’s decision is minimal – his seat should remain safe in Republican hands. But it remains notable because it marks the departure of one of the few remaining Republican senators who had a moderate voting record and/or strongly opposed former President Donald Trump.
Naturally, the Senate was a second (or third) career for Romney. After a successful business career during which he co-founded Bain Capital, Romney was elected governor of Massachusetts in 2002 — part of the Bay State’s long-standing love affair with moderate Republican governors. He ran for president twice and won the Republican nomination in 2012, losing to then-President Barack Obama in the presidential election. General elections.
That was the last time the Republican Party chose a presidential nominee other than Trump. Since 2016, Republican voters have turned against Romney’s version of establishment-aligned Republicanism and embraced Trump’s reckless populism. In 2018, a year in which large numbers of moderate or anti-Trump Republicans left Congress, Romney bucked the trend by being elected to the Senate from Utah (where there is a large membership of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints). — including Romney himself — they made The local Republican Party is more skeptical of Trump Of most). Since then, he has risen Speak out loud Against the new direction of the party. Most notably, it They voted to convict Trump in Both impeachment trials.
Romney also developed a moderate voting record, bucking the right wing of his party on votes ranging from Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson confirmed to Revoke Trump’s emergency declaration To fund the border wall. The result of DW’s nomination of Romney — a measure of ideology based on roll call voting, where 1 represents the most conservative and -1 represents the most liberal — has a score of 0.288, making him more moderate than all but three of the current Republican senators.
In fact, both groups of Republicans – Trump opponents and ideological moderates – are now endangered species, and Romney’s departure will lead to further culling of the herd. Of the 17 Republicans who voted to impeach or convict Trump in either impeachment, only six remain in Congress, including Romney. The number of Senate Republicans with DW-NOMINATE scores below 0.300 is at its lowest level in at least 40 years.
Romney’s anti-Trump and moderate record may have indirectly contributed to his decision to retire, because it made him relatively unpopular with Republican voters in Utah. According to Poll August 7-14 By Dan Jones & Company Only 56 percent of registered Republican voters in Utah approved of Romney’s job performance. That may not sound so bad, but among members of your party, the vote approval rating is a very modest 56%. (By contrast, 81% of registered Republican voters nationally have a favorable opinion of Trump, according to the latest MIT poll.) Quinnipiac University.)
Much like prominent Trump critics Former Senator Jeff Flake did in 2018Romney may have declined to run for re-election because he feared losing in the Republican primary. The same poll asked about a hypothetical primary, and Romney received 45% support among Republicans. That’s too weak for the incumbent, who is accustomed to waltzing to renomination.
On the other hand, no other candidate in the poll received more than 7 percent, and only 27 percent said they would vote for another candidate whose name was not mentioned. Moreover, the poll found that Romney’s approval rating among Republicans is on the rise. Last May, only 40% approved of his performance. So Romney’s path to renomination may be clearer today than it has been for some time, which makes the timing of the announcement curious. So maybe we should take Romney at his word when he mentions his age as a worker in his retirement video. (Romney is 76 years old, and would have been 83 at the end of a potential second term.)
So what’s next for Utah State? first class Senate seat? Romney’s retirement is unlikely to lead to a competitive general election next fall: Even though Utah has shifted toward Democrats under Trump, it is still red enough that it voted for him by more than 20 percentage points in 2020, and Democrats did not that. He won the statewide elections in Beehive State Since 1996. (It’s true that anti-Trump independent Evan McMullen lost to Republican Sen. Mike Lee in 2022 by just 10.4 points after that.) The Democrats stood aside and did not nominate anyone In order to give McMullin a better chance of winning. But, on the other hand, anti-Trump independent Evan McMullen still lost to Republican Sen. Mike Lee in 2022 by 10.4 points even after Democrats stepped aside and didn’t nominate anyone in order to give McMullen a better chance of winning!)
So the contest to watch will be the state’s GOP primary on June 25 — specifically, whether the party’s nominee will be more conservative and/or pro-Trump than Romney. So far the answer seems to be yes; The field of candidates and potential candidates lacks a maverick like Romney. House Speaker Brad Wilson, who has already formed an exploratory committee, presents himself as “the one who will do it.”Governor’s champion“, and in 2020 it is Submitted a legislative decision In honor of Trump after his first impeachment. However, it may be him The most palatable option for old-school Republicans; The second candidate, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, has Romney attacked For his support of “wokeness” and the impeachment of Trump. and Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes, who served as co-chair of Trump’s re-election campaign in the state and I tried to reverse the results For the 2020 election, it is Rumored filter as well.
But there is still time for a Romney-style candidate to come forward. And Utah still has a fair number of Trump-skeptical Republicans — for example, former state Rep. Becky Edwards, a Republican who voted for President Biden and just lost narrowly. Special primary for Utah’s 2nd District. It is possible to be eliminated from a Senate primary if the conservative/pro-Trump vote is split between multiple candidates. But of course, none of the alternatives have the fame or financial advantage that Romney has. So there’s no doubt that his retirement is a huge blow to Republicans who don’t like what’s happening to their party.