Eight Republican candidates participated in the party’s first primary debate in August. But the stage could feature fewer contenders when the GOP holds its next debate later this month.
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We’re less than two weeks away from the second GOP presidential primary debate, so time is running out for the GOP contenders To meet the qualification standards of the Republican National Committee. For the September 27 discussion, Every candidate should have it Support of at least 3% in two qualifying national polls, or at least 3% in one national poll, and the same number in exit polls in two different early voting states, conducted since August 1. Each candidate must also provide proof of at least. 50,000 unique donors to their campaign. If they have the ballots and donors, the candidates will again have to sign a pledge to support the party’s eventual 2024 nominee if they want to participate.
As things stand, there is a good chance that fewer candidates will qualify than the eight Who attended the party’s first meeting in August. Six of those eight appear to have the donors and pollsters for the second debate, and all of them signed the Republican National Committee pledge in the first debate, so there’s no reason to believe they won’t sign again. However, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson may have trouble qualifying again under September’s higher thresholds for polls and donors. After skipping the first debate despite easily qualifying for it – except for signing the Republican National Committee pledge – former President Donald Trump appears ready. To avoid a second discussionalso.
At least six candidates appear set to participate in the second GOP debate
Republican presidential candidates by whether and how they qualified for the Second Primary Debate and whether they signed the First Debate Pledge, as of 4:30 PM ET on September 13, 2023.
| candidate | Opinion polls | Donors | The First Debate Pledge was signed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš |
| Nikki Haley | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš |
| Mike Pence | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš |
| Chris Christie | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš |
| Tim Scott | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš |
| Donald Trump | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | |
| Doug Burgum | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | |
| Asa Hutchinson | вВљâÐ’ÐÐ’Ñš | ||
| Will Hurd |
FiveThirtyEight’s analysis found that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy received at least 3% support in every qualifying poll (and Trump did, too). Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie hit that mark in nearly every poll, while South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott reached that mark in about three-quarters of them. None of these six candidates has shown any sign of difficulty when it comes to reaching the 50,000 donor mark. Even the Pence campaign, which has had a harder time attracting donors than most campaigns, Announced in mid-August That it has enough unique contributors to qualify for the second debate.
With 11 days remaining until the September 25 qualifying deadline, the ballot threshold rising from 1% to 3% appears to be the main hurdle for ineligible candidates. Burgum announced in late July He had 50,000 donors, but a FiveThirtyEight analysis found he reached 3% in only one statewide poll, which Mid-August poll in Iowa from the Trafalgar Group. Now, Burgum’s campaign might argue he got 3% in New Hampshire, based on his 2.5%. Another reconnaissance in mid-August at Trafalgar Or the 4 percent he got A survey conducted in early August from Participate/Active On behalf of New Hampshire Magazine. We can’t rule out that the RNC will count the second Trafalgar poll, though the RNC has shown no indication of wanting to round off reported poll results to decimal places while qualifying for the first debate. However, because it is common/effective He polled favorably for Trump this cyclethe New Hampshire survey will not be counted Under the RNC ballot rule Which It does not include surveys conducted by affiliated organizations With a candidate or committee of candidates.
However, regardless of whether he polled from one or two of the early states, Burgum struggled to reach the 3 percent mark in national polls. It’s no wonder that Best of America PAC, a super PAC that supports Burgum, Booked $4 million in advertising Between August 30 and September 24. However, there is not much evidence that has supported Burgum: the most prolific national polls, Morning consultationIt has released data for seven nationwide polls since Aug. 1, but Burgum received more than 0 percent only once. reaching 1 percent in the mid-August poll That preceded the Super PAC announcement buy. In fact, Burgum’s approval rating has reached 2% in only one national poll that sampled at least 800 likely Republican voters since August 1, which is a lot. Kaplan Strategies Survey Conducted immediately after the first discussion.
Meanwhile, Hutchinson needs more polls and Donors are setting the stage, though it seems likely to hit the 50,000-contributor mark. Last week, a campaign spokesperson told ABC News that Hutchinson is “very close” to donor requirements, and He got a last-minute increase in contributors To qualify for the first discussion. On the polling front, Hutchinson has something Burgum doesn’t: one national poll at 3 percent or better, thanks A survey conducted by Kaplan Strategies was conducted prior to the first debate. But Hutchinson has not risen above 1 percent in any potentially qualifying nationwide poll since the first debate. He did no better in early statewide polls, making it unlikely that he would get qualifying polls from two different states to combine with his only national poll to meet the Republican National Committee’s other ballot qualification path.
It’s hard to imagine that any other Republican would have a chance of qualifying for the September debate. Former Texas Rep. Will Hurd appears to have one qualifying poll from New Hampshire – A poll conducted by Echelon Insights/Republican Main Street Partnership in mid-August But like Burgum and Hutchinson, he struggled to get above 1% in most polls. And while she responded It could reach the 50,000 donor markfor him Public refusal to consider signing the Republican National Committee’s pledge It’s almost a guarantee that he won’t make it to the stage. In addition, businessman Perry Johnson and radio broadcaster Larry Elder both came close to qualifying for the first debate They threatened to take legal action Against the RNC They claimed so He unfairly kept them off the stage. But even if Johnson and/or Elder can reach 50,000 donors – Johnson He claimed to have that many In mid-August – neither candidate had a qualifying poll to their name.
Finally, Trump’s presence – or absence – overshadows the discussion process. The former president scored above 50% on FiveThirtyEight’s national average, making him the favorite to win the Republican nomination. However, while Trump’s average fell slightly after the first debate, it essentially recovered to its pre-debate position, suggesting that voters were not really punishing him for missing the event. No wonder then He seems determined to skip the second discussion He held counterprogramming that evening, just as he did in the first debate When the interview is pre-recorded between Trump and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson was simulcast.
With Trump likely absent, the second debate is once again turning into a struggle between the party’s major alternatives, none of whom appear positioned to mount a major challenge to Trump. However, it is important for these candidates to make it to the debate stage, because failure to qualify can signal to donors that their campaigns have no chance of success. Moreover, without Trump taking the spotlight, the debate will give other Republican contenders a leg up To be seen and heard by a large audience. This is an opportunity that candidates do not want to waste, as an excellent debate performance can do. He could – Change the course of their campaign.