The hits and near-misses you never hear about

The large asteroid known as 2024 YR4 took the headlines this week, as scientists raised his chances of hitting the Earth, and then reduced them.

The latest estimate says that the object has a 0.28 % chance to hit the Earth in 2032, which is much lower than 3.1 % chance earlier in the week.

Scientists say that it is now likely to break the moon, as NASA is estimated at 1 %.

But at the time since 2024 it was first monitored through a telescope in the desert in Chile two months ago, dozens of other things near the Earth passed through the moon, which appears from an astronomical point of view as if it were a nearby Miss.

The others are likely to be much smaller, we have been burned or burned in the air, but they did not notice.

This is the story of the asteroids that you have never heard of-so a fly, nearby openings and direct strikes.

The vast majority is harmless. But some carry the most valuable clues to opening puzzles in our world, and the information we are desperate to get our hands.

Asteroids, sometimes called small planets, are rock pieces that were left to form our solar system about 4.6 billion years ago.

Rocking rocks are routinely near the ground, pushed by the danger of other planets.

For most history of mankind, it was impossible to know how close we would hit him as a large asteroid.

Professor Mark Boslo of New Mexico University explains that serious monitoring of things near Earth began only in the late twentieth century. He says, “Before that we were unaware of them.”

Now we know that the very large things – 40 meters across or more – pass between the Earth and the moon several times a year. This is the same size as the asteroid that exploded on Siberia in 1908, which resulted in the injury of people and harmful buildings over an area of ​​200 square miles.

It was the most dangerous Miss near Miss, and the closest comparison with YR4, as an asteroid called Apophis, which was first monitored in 2004 and measured 375 meters across or about the size of a tourist ship.

Professor Patrick Michelle of the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) followed Abu Dfis and remembers that he was considered the most dangerous asteroid that was ever discovered.

It took it until 2013 to get enough notes to understand that it will not hit the ground.

But he says there was a big difference with YR4. “We did not know what to do. We discovered something, and we identified the possibility of influence, then we thought, who do we call?” He says. He says that scientists and governments had no idea how to respond.

It can be a large catastrophic asteroid blow if it hit an area in which humans live.

We do not know exactly how much YR4 size is yet, but if it is at the upper end of the estimates, about 90 meters, it is likely to remain largely intact instead of separation when entering the atmosphere to the Earth.

“The remaining asteroid bloc can create a hole. The structures are likely to be destroyed directly in the vicinity and people inside the local area (dozens of kilometers) will be at risk of serious injury,” explains Professor Catherine Konamoto from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Some people can die.

But since Apophis, there has been significant progress in the so -called planetary defense.

Professor Michel is part of the advisory group for international space planning.

Representatives advise governments on how to respond to the asteroid’s threat and manage a rehearsal exercise for direct visits. There is one happening now.

If the asteroid is on his way to a city or a city, Dr. Buslo compares the response to the preparations that were made to a large hurricane, including evacuation and measures to protect infrastructure.

The advisory group for planning for the space mission will meet again in April to determine what to do about 4.

By that time, most scientists expect the risks to be almost completely completely, as their course accounts become more accurate.

We have options that go beyond “take a blow”, says Dr. Kumamoto.

NASA and the European Space Agency have developed techniques to push dangerous asteroids outside the path.

The DART is a dual asteroid in NASA (DART) successfully succeeded in a spacecraft in the asteroid’s blood to change its course.

However, scientists are skeptical if this will work in the case of YR4 due to uncertainty about what is made of the short window of time to successfully convert it.

What about the asteroids that struck the earth? The embarrassing truth for scientists is that a direct strike on Earth away from humans is the perfect scenario for asteroids.

This gives them actual pieces of distant things within our solar system, as well as visions in the history of Earth’s influence.

Nearly 50,000 asteroids were found in Antarctica. It is believed that the most famous, called Alh 84001, has arisen on Mars and contains minerals with vital evidence about the history of the planet, indicating that he was warm and had water on its surface billions of years ago.

In 2023, scientists discovered a asteroid called 33 polyhymitia, which could have a more intense element than anything on Earth.

This heavy element will be completely new on our planet. 33 Polyhymit is at least 170 million km, but it is an indication of the amazing capabilities of asteroids to understand science.

Now that her chances are higher than YR4 will hit the moon, some scientists are excited.

The impact can give the real world answers to the questions that they can simulate only using computers.

“Getting one data point of real examples will be incredibly strong,” says Professor Gareth Collins from Importal College London.

“How much material does it appear when the asteroid strikes? He asks.

It will help them test the scenarios, similar to the effects of the asteroid on the floor, which helps to create better predictions.

YR4 reminded us that we live on a planet vulnerable to clashes with something fill in the solar system – rocks.

Scientists warn of self -consent, saying it is an issue when, no, if, a large asteroid will threaten human life on Earth, although most of them expect to be in the coming centuries instead of decades.

Meanwhile, our ability to monitor the space continues to improve. Later this year, the largest digital camera will start working at the Ferira Robin Observatory in Chile, capable of picking up the night sky with incredible details.

The longer we approach, the more asteroids near the ground.