AAfter the Golden Globe nominations were announced this weekend last month, there seemed to be an equal mix of cheers and jeers. For every blatant, racially disturbing snub (Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Rammell Ross, Danielle Deadwyler) there was a casting that showed an embrace of a more cosmopolitan ensemble (Payal Kapadia, Coralie Farget, Fernanda Torres). Trying to “fix” globes after years of controversy appears to be an ongoing process.
In a year where there are fewer certainties than we are used to, who might emerge victorious on Sunday?
Best Film (Drama)
It’s been a tough race to get to grips with this year – without Oppenheimer at the front, for example. The results for this category in particular will be somewhat revealing as to where he might end up. While critics, myself included, may pick on the Nickel Boys, it’s probably a bit off-putting to win. Besides September 5, he has only filed one nomination this year, indicating limited appeal to voters. There’s more love for Dune: Part Two, with Hans Zimmer also getting the nod, but with the exclusion of its director, Denis Villeneuve, he’s unlikely to prevail here. The Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is also an odd film, in that it’s a film more about performance than anything else, and thus limited to just two films, at different ends of the spectrum. There’s reason to believe that enough voters could choose the Vatican-set thriller Conclave, one of the most universally popular films of the season, but I think Brady Corbett’s saga, and the epic feature-length drama The Brutalist, will emerge victorious here. Both films benefit from topical narrative, but the latter also has a broader scope and more emotional texture, which gives it the advantage.
will win: Brutal
Should win: Nickel Boys
Should be nominated: I saw the glow of the television
Best Actress (Drama)
The old accusation that the Globes favor celebrity over talent is most prominent here, as Pamela Anderson and Kate Winslet oust Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who was scooping major Critics’ Circle awards for her searing performance in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Anderson’s comeback story is far more engaging than her actual performance in Gia Coppola’s awkward The Last Showgirl, while Winslet, a 14-time nominee and five-time winner, could get a nomination for saying her name, which might be more entertaining. To watch from her long-running Lee resume (she also received a nomination this year for the insufferable HBO series The Regime). The inclusion of Fernanda Torres’ incredibly worthy ‘I’m Still Here’ shows that voters are once again looking outside of what’s immediately familiar, while The Room Next Door’s Tilda Swinton is an outsider who will likely see her awards chances begin and end here. I could then see that it was down to two Globes heavyweights: Babygirl’s Nicole Kidman and Mariah’s Angelina Jolie. Between them they have nine wins out of 29 nominations and either choice would be perfect for the Globes. Things could go either way, but I think Babygirl is the film with more hype and critical support (Jolie also missed out on a spot on the Bafta longlist this week) – so Kidman will probably take it home.
will win: Nicole Kidman (Baby Girl)
Should win: Fernanda Torres (I’m still here)
Should be nominated: Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
Best Actor (Drama)
It’s a tough category as most of the potential Best Actor Oscar contenders will come from dramas this year (while the Best Actress nominees will certainly include more of the comedy/musical side). I bet the five Oscar nominees are among the six here, with The Apprentice’s Sebastian Stan or Queer’s Daniel Craig being the odd one out. There wasn’t much love at the Globes elsewhere for Sing Sing (there were no Best Picture or Supporting Actor nominations) meaning Colman Domingo is also unlikely, while Conclave’s Ralph Fiennes, despite his popularity he may enjoy With the film, he doesn’t seem to have enough hype (he’s also so good and reliable at everything he can be the kind of candidate you take for granted). I think it will come down to Timothée Chalamet from A Complete Unknown and Adrien Brody from The Brutalist. The former benefits from the success of other music biopic winners at the Globes (such as Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody, Austin Butler for Elvis, and Taron Egerton for Rocketman), but the latter will likely push for a win. He may have been overlooked in favor of Jack Nicholson more than two decades ago (before his Oscar win), but his widely acclaimed comeback role in the second most nominated film of the night should finally land him a Globe.
will win: Adrien Brody (brutal)
Should win: Adrien Brody (brutal)
Should be nominated: André Holland (Showing Forgiveness)
Best Film (Comedy or Musical)
It’s a competitive year in a category that has often seen some much-derided barrel-scraping by the contenders (previous years have seen The Tourist, Burlesque, Red and The Prom here). The outsider will be the challengers, who, despite Zendaya’s approval and Internet support, are unlikely to unseat some of the friendlier awards contenders. Jesse Eisenberg’s Real Pain also likely suffers as a film viewed mostly as a vehicle for spectacle – a film in particular that I will return to later. It’s really a category reserved for women in the remaining four films, all of which have compelling awards season narratives. Although The Substance ended up with more nominations than expected, it seems the least likely to win due to its goofier tone, and although Wicked is an ideal choice for the Globes, I think it, like Barbie last year, may be passed over As a heavier fare. Which leaves her between Cannes stars Anora and Emilia Perez. The former may have more critical support, as well as the Palme d’Or itself, but the latter may have the edge, as the most Globe-nominated comedy or musical of all time (!) and is much more widely told.
will win: Emilia Perez
Should win: Anura
Should be nominated: My old ass
Best Actress (Comedy or Musical)
As mentioned earlier, it’s a competitive year for women in this category, which again makes forecasting this year difficult. Although she’s a darling of the Globes, with two wins and eight other nominations, Amy Adams is the obvious outsider here, given the way Nightbitch was received. Zendaya will also have to step down from her performance in Challengers, a film that has arguably gained more attention for its male cast. Which leaves it to the same four female-led films that will compete in the Comedy/Musical category. There’s a compelling narrative for Demi Moore’s return from The Substance, with even the film’s naysayers praising her stunning performance, while a historic win for Emilia Perez’s Carla Sofía Gascón would be fitting given she plays the film’s most nominated main character. . But I think that will go back to Cynthia Erivo from Wicked and Mikey Madison from Anora. I can see Erivo easily winning the only major award for Wicked, but I think the sparkling charm of newcomer Madison, a top actress favorite since Cannes, will shine through.
will win: Mickey Madison (Anora)
Should win: Mickey Madison (Anora)
Should be nominated: Maisie Stella (my old ass)
Best Actor (Comedy or Musical)
It’s a much less competitive year for guys in musicals and comedies (there’s not a single guy here than before), so this year could go a number of ways. The outsider here will be Saturday Night’s Gabrielle LaBelle, a real filler for a film selection that has sunk since last year’s fall festival circuit. And while Jesse Plemons may have won Best Actor at Cannes for his role in Kinds of Kindness, that’s unlikely to be the case here, given how somewhat faded the film is. It would be fun to see Hugh Grant pick up the win for his terrible, wonderful performance in Heretic (a horror film that was cynically promoted as a comedy to secure a nomination), but I’d ultimately put him in the bottom three. The least likely of them all may be A Real Pain’s Jesse Eisenberg, who ceded the stage to his co-star Kieran Culkin, a chance at the film’s top awards. The competition then takes place between A Different Man’s Sebastian Stan (who is also nominated in the Drama category for The Apprentice) and Hit Man’s Glen Powell. As much as the Globes may have changed, I can’t see anything as weird and edgy as a different guy getting the Globe, so I think Powell’s undeniable charisma will win out.
will win: Glen Powell (hitman)
Should win: Hugh Grant (Heretic)
Should be nominated: Ian McKellen (critic)
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actress has long been one of the Globes’ most prized categories as it has allowed a string of glamorous actors to shine on stage who often failed to win Oscars (Julia Roberts, Winona Ryder, Kate Hudson, Natalie Portman and Jennifer Lawrence among them). ). This year sees a showdown between the pop stars, with Emilia Perez’s Selena Gomez and Wicked’s Ariana Grande competing, a dream for the Globes given the bump both fan bases would likely add to the ratings. But Gomez is an unlikely choice here, along with The Brutalist’s Felicity Jones, The Substance’s Margaret Qualley, and Conclave’s Isabella Rossellini. Grande has a strong chance but I think she might lose to Gomez’s co-star Zoe Saldaña, whose performance, arguably a major one, dominates the most award-winning film of the night and would make a lot of sense for a reward.
will win: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Perez)
Should win: Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Should be nominated: Trine Dyrholm (The Girl with the Needle)
Best Supporting Actor
Finally, an easy one! Since it premiered at Sundance last year, the smartest critics have put their money on A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin. He’s another arguable lead who’s involved in a bit of category fraud (what would the awards race be without him?) but his role here is a perfect follow-up to the succession for voters (last year saw him win Best Actor in a Drama Series). . His path this season has followed that of Da’Vine Joy Randolph of The Holdovers last year, winning almost everything in the lead-up to the event and a strong bet to win here and at the Oscars. It’s unlikely he’ll be threatened by A Complete Unknown’s Edward Norton, The Apprentice’s Jeremy Strong, The Brutalist’s Guy Pearce, or Anora’s Yura Borisov, but there could be an argument for spoiling Denzel Washington’s character. The actor, who has won three Globe Awards and been nominated nine other times, is the biggest star of the bunch, and while Gladiator II received a mixed reception, his performance was not. However, I’ll pick Culkin for the easier win of the night.
will win: Kieran Culkin (Real Pain)
Should win: Edward Norton (completely anonymous)
Should be nominated: Brian Thierry Henry (The Fire Within)
Best director
One of the more interesting races is here, as some of the year’s biggest names and films – such as Ridley Scott from Gladiator II, Jon M Chu from Wicked, and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two – have been removed – instead we have a host of lesser-known names competing. The Globe Awards have improved in recent years with female representation, including filmmakers who were even snubbed by the Oscars (Regina King, Celine Song, Greta Gerwig, Maggie Gyllenhaal). Still, the inclusion of two non-American women here feels like a big milestone, even if The Substance’s Coralie Fargeat and All We Imagine’s Payal Kapadia are unlikely to win the role of Light’s Payal Kapadia. Conclave’s Edward Berger also appears to be out of the running (although the film is beloved, it’s perhaps not viewed as a directorial triumph), leaving it to three contenders. Although it may be an impressive technical achievement, Anora and its director, Sean Baker, may struggle compared to its main competitors in terms of size. It will probably then come down to Emilia Perez’s Jacques Audiard and The Brutalist’s Brady Corbett, and I think, by a small margin, that Courbet will win, the film being a much less divisive choice.
will win: Brady Corbett (Brutal)
Should win: Payal Kapadia (Everything We Imagine Is Like Light)
Should be nominated: Jane Schoenbrunn (I Watched the TV Glow)