We have the first survey of the New York Times College survey/Ceena since the elections, and it is likely that everyone will agree on this a lot: the results are not good for President Trump.
You will be severely pressed to find a single “good” number for Mr. Trump in the survey.
The job approval rating is only 42 percent, and voters have refused to deal with each issue tested in the survey, including long strengths such as migration and economy.
Only 43 per cent view it positively, a decrease from 48 percent in the survey of the final times/Siena before the elections and the lowest since its assassination attempt last July.
[See all the latest Trump approval polls in our polling tracker.]
In the question after the question, the voters say it goes away. And sixty -six percent of them say “chaos” is describing Mr. Trump’s second state well; 59 percent say “scary” is somewhat well.
If his numbers are not good, what is their misfortune?
It has always been political, Mr. Trump’s reconnaissance numbers can be subject to interpretation. On the one hand, it is usually weak with traditional standards. On the other hand, they can be considered a sign of flexibility, because many other politicians would have judged them if they were behaving like him. He won the presidency twice, after all.
This time, the glass may be closer to the empty half than half full of Mr. Trump. Here are four ways to look at.
Perspective 1: Compared to other presidents
Imagine that you know nothing about this president or his actions yet. I just knew that this is a president with 42 percent of approval of a job after about 100 days.
If this is all you know, you will have to say that this presidency was at a catastrophic beginning.
For most presidents, the first 100 days are good as it happens. It is difficult to remember now, but at this time four years ago, Joe Biden was still comparing with FDR until the sentences – I think Jimmy Carter’s first or second term for George W. Bush – still gets positive reviews at this stage.
It is not easy to burn this good will a lot, and it usually does not become easier from here.
Perspective 2: compared to January expectations
Returning yourself to the beginning of the year, when Mr. Trump was saturated with victory, when there was a conversation with a right -wing “Vibi” transformation or even a preliminary reorganization.
From this perspective, it will be considered the first 100 days of Mr. Trump, political disappointment – at best.
While only won, the elections were still a decisive victory for the popular conservative policy over the exhausted liberalism. There were endless opportunities to pay major initiatives with great support from issues, on issues such as migration, crime, energy, “waking” or economy. Once again in January, it was possible for Mr. Trump to consolidate an alliance behind these issues.
Not anymore. Not only did it confiscate any political opportunity that was present at the beginning of his term, but he also managed to convert his usual strengths into obligations. Voters no longer say that his policies will help them personally anymore, one of the main reasons for winning just six months ago.
Migration may be the most obvious example. Voters still support the deportation of illegal immigrants, 54-42, according to the poll. Somehow, this was elected by Mr. Trump to do, and he was doing it. However, voters do not agree to deal with immigration because the violations of his policy were able to alienate many voters who will be beside him.
In this regard, the usual optimistic situation of Mr. Trump is much weaker than in most of the past eight years. Although his numbers were usually weak, there was no promise that he could have been more than anything else. This time, there was a lost opportunity.
Perspective 3: Looking back at nearly 100 days
Mr. Trump’s agenda for 100 days has not necessarily passed the way some voters expected. He launched a trade war, made comprehensive claims to the executive authority, reduced federal programs and started a comprehensive campaign against legal, medical and educational institutions.
With this context, the decrease in its assessments is not particularly surprising. Public opinion usually turns against the party that tries to enact change, and Mr. Trump began a radical political program: thirty -seven percent of Americans see him as trying to demolish the economic and political system, and most voters say the changes are “bad”.
This is where a half -glass perspective begins to feel rationally. Mr. Trump may take condolences in the numbers: Despite everything he did, the rating of the approval of 42 percent for him is somewhat due to where he was always.
But this optimism has limits. Although Mr. Trump appears to be out of the controversy safely, he clearly has achieved great success. There was a political cost. There is no reason for the necessity to assume that he has suffered a complete punishment yet.
Perspective 4: We look forward to the next 1,365 days
If the approval evaluation of 42 percent represents its full repercussions from Mr. Trump’s actions, one may say that he has somewhat well.
But it has not ended yet; After today, there are 1,365 days remaining in his term. The main problems that draw down its classifications – such as definitions or comprehensive demands of the executive authority – are not in the rear vision mirror.
If Mr. Trump begins to feel the political cost of his program, this poll is full of warning signs. A clear majority of voters says that the president has already gone very far from changing the economic and political system, very far from the definitions, very far from spending discounts, very far from the enforcement of immigration.
In particular, the survey shows two clear areas as it faces additional risks during the next few months.
First, its comprehensive allegations of the executive authority. Indeed, the majority of voters say Mr. Trump exceeds his powers as president. Only 31 percent of voters agreed to deal with the Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia case – the slightest agreed classification in the survey – and will find himself on an equal footing if he is pushed further. Only 11 percent say that he should be able to send citizens to us to Al Salvador, like suggest Last week. Only 6 percent say it should be able to ignore the rulings of the Supreme Court.
Second, the economy. While 50 percent of voters already believe that Mr. Trump has made the economy worse, compared to 21 percent who believe it is better, only 32 percent of the voters say he is responsible for the biggest challenges facing the American economy. If Mr. Trump’s tariff is exposed to the economy alone, as many economists expect, there appears to be room for his reviews.
To date, the low classifications of Mr. Trump are not a serious challenge to his presidency. This may be the biggest reason for his supporters to be optimistic.
But if his evaluation continues to fall in the thirties, there will be real risks. The invincible Hala that helped maintain his opposition under selection will start to fade. It can face a greater “resistance” judicial authority and “resistance” than civil society. Even the slightest cracks in its support in Congress can make it difficult to age its agenda. If Mr. Trump remains on his current path, there is an opportunity for the optimistic issue to become more difficult to maintain it.