Estimates Imply That Trump Tariffs Could Fall Heavily on Consumers

President Trump said that the global definitions planned to announce this week will correct decades of unfair relations and prevent other countries from tearing the United States. But whether the so -called mutual definitions will lead to a rise in other countries or less than those that are still unclear.

The president described his global definitions as a negotiating tool that can force other countries to drop their commercial barriers in front of American products and lead to more commodities across the border.

But the president also talked about the customs tariff as a way to increase government revenues and transfer supply chains to the United States. In order for these goals to be accomplished, the relatively high definitions must be imposed, and not to drop them.

These conflicting goals will reach her head this week, when Mr. Trump is expected to reveal the details of the mutual tariff plan. Mr. Trump has taken a summons of “Liberation Day” on April 2, saying that he would represent the country that is freed from previous trade relations that he says has been harmed by the United States.

It is not yet clear what Mr. Trump will announce. In recent weeks, his advisers have weighted many different legal strategies and authorities, some of which would be more focused on increasing revenues, and others will be directed towards negotiations and opening global markets. Some of the plans that they thought of their confidentiality may enter, while others will take more time but are more isolated from legal challenges.

Mr. Trump did not explain the course of the work he will take. The president will be the final decision -maker, and the recent tariff procedures have shown. Some of his advisers, along with the business community, were surprised by some of the procedures announced in recent weeks, such as placing fees on auto parts.

Speaking to correspondents on Monday, the president said that his advisers presented different ideas about the customs tariff, and that he had already decided a plan. “I settled,” he said.

He added, “We want to do what is appropriate for the country and even the world,” saying that the United States was “the pork bank for the entire world.”

One of the largest supporters of the customs tariff among Mr. Trump’s advisers is Peter Navarro, the chief trade consultant. In an interview with Fox News Sunday, he said that customs duties will collect about $ 6 trillion of revenues during the next decade, and that these revenues will go towards financing the “largest tax reduction in American history of the middle class”.

It seems that the number of $ 6 trillion is visiting the “global tariff” that the White House examined. A person familiar with the conversations said that the analysis looked at the impact of a 20 percent flat tariff imposing on all imports and concluded that he would collect about $ 6.5 trillion over a decade.

Wall Street Magazine It was mentioned on Sunday Mr. Trump’s advisers have weed a global tariff of up to 20 percent on almost all American commercial partners.

Earlier this month, Scott Besin, the Treasury Secretary, described the mutual tariff plan differently. He said that every country will receive a “number” that reflects what the White House considers the cost of foreign trade barriers, which will be low for some countries and its height for others.

Mr. Pesent also said that some countries that have already negotiated agreements with the United States may not face definitions. People familiar with the talks said that the United Kingdom and India are among those who receive low definitions by discussing deals proactively with the Trump administration.

The ambiguity has allowed whether they will end up in America’s trade -off tariffs in the Trump administration with a temporary paper on an important section in the Republican Party when it comes to trade.

Currently, Republican Free Traders and prominent business groups have followed with the mutual president’s proposal, while pushing him to adopt what they call “zero for zero” – if other countries fall their tariffs on American products to scratch, the United States will also drop their drivers.

Stephen Moore, an economist at the Heritage Corporation, a conservative research reservoir, said he is confident that the president’s goal is to reduce customs tariffs instead of raising it, saying that Mr. Trump had been transferred to him in talks.

Mr. Moore said: “I have said several times,” I am a free merchant. I just want a fair trade. “

But Mr. Moore added that there was no consensus among the Republicans that the customs tariff was the right path forward.

He said: “During the past month, there was a lot of talk about the customs tariff and a little talk about lowering taxes.” “We are talking about the issue of dividing Republicans instead of uniting Republicans.”

Senator Tim Kane, Democrat Virginia, said that his Republican colleagues were “expressing their concern” about the definitions. Mr. Kane is expected to make a decision on Tuesday, which will force Republicans to vote whether he will prevent the president from using emergency powers to put definitions on Canada.

Mr. Kane said: “I know that they hear from their farmers, just as I am.” He said that the experience of the agricultural sector in commercial wars for the first year of Mr. Trump was “really painful.”

It seems that some of the consultants of Mr. Trump who support free trade have prompted the mutual tariff plan that would lead to different tariff rates for countries that can be negotiated.

But the desire to bring down barriers and open trade has acted in a prerequisite of Mr. Trump’s supporters who want the customs tariff to be much higher, and they believe that previous free trade agreements were harmful to the United States. Some believe that the customs tariff at all should be imposed on all imports to generate revenues to reduce taxes. Others argue that high tariffs should be placed even to encourage companies to return their supply chains beach to the United States.

Some commercial experts argued that these goals – raising revenues and recruiting supply chains – contradict each other. In order for the government to obtain a lot of revenues, Americans will need to continue to buy large sums of imported products. And if factories turn into the United States instead, government revenues from the definitions will decrease.

But some supporters of Mr. Trump say that both goals can be achieved through a mixture of customs tariffs. The global tariff may not be 20 percent high enough in many cases to encourage companies to transfer their factories to the United States, but it may lead to revenues with Americans continue to import products.

The Trump administration is also studying a variety of other definitions of the sector, including copper, wood, pharmaceutical preparations and semi -conductors. The president has started investigations whether these imports pose a threat to national security – a result that allows Mr. Trump to request a new tariff. This is the justification that the president has used so far to request a new tariff on steel, aluminum and cars.

“The permanent and global tariffs in all fields will not only raise revenues and achieve the global trade environment, but it will also provide long -term certainty and the necessary stability to rebuild our economic security industry, achieve President Trump’s trade and traffick

He added that the mutual tariff strategy “aims to go to” zero for zero “gives priority to reaching foreign markets instead of President Trump’s goal of increasing local production and generating revenues to finance class policies supporting the work, such as the lack of taxes on advice.”

Many economists have argued that revenues resulting from customs tariffs will be eventually paid by American consumers and companies, which are likely to bear the burden of definitions. These additional costs can be available to the Americans, especially after Mr. Trump carried a campaign to reduce the inflation that was afflicted with the United States and other countries during the Biden administration.

Yale’s budget laboratory estimated that the new car tariff for Mr. Trump, which is scheduled to enter into force on Thursday, may collect 600 billion dollars to 650 billion dollars from revenues from 2026 to 2035.

The prices of American vehicles will increase by 13.5 percent on average, equivalent to an additional $ 6400 for a new 2024 car. Each American family will pay between $ 500 to $ 600 as a result of the group’s definitions.

Mr. Navarro denied that the costs of customs tariffs would decrease to Americans, saying that foreign suppliers will reduce their prices and that the administration will reduce the costs of Americans by lowering gas prices. Trump officials said it will be completed by drilling for more oil in the United States.

Mr. Navarro said: “The customs tariff are tax cuts, and the definitions are jobs, and definitions are national security.” “The definitions are great for America.”

Caroline Levitt, the White House press secretary, said on Monday that the president’s offer on Wednesday would be the first administration ever in the garden of roses with full attendance. She added that there will be no “exemptions at this time.”

Tony Rom The reports contributed.

By BBC

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