Donald Trump, who has long called climate change a “hoax,” will waste no time in his plans to strip nature protections, ban wind turbines and drain every drop of oil from American soil.
Some have likened it to a “wrecking ball” for climate action.
But maybe things won’t be as bad as they fear.
Yes, he has pledged to prevent new “windmills” – a term he uses pejoratively for wind turbines – being built offshore “from day one”, despite them being among the cheapest sources of energy in the world. we.
And yes, he wants to abolish environmental rules and roll back them Joe BidenAnd the landmark green legislation that unleashed billions in clean energy stimulus (the Inflation Reduction Act), repealing everything that held back “liquid gold” in the US – oil.
His actions will reverberate far beyond America’s borders as well.
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The MAGA team is also expected to pull America out of the historic Paris Agreement once againWhich he says is “killing the American economy.”
It is the world’s largest global climate treaty, which has helped significantly reduce global warming, and which Biden quickly joined.
This means that the second largest climate polluter will disappear from the global climate battle, just as we were warned How important the next few years are Aiming to control climate change.
This translates into more violent floods and fires, which is very likely in the United States itself.
America is no climate saint
Trump says the measures will “halve energy and electricity prices within 12 months” and achieve “energy dominance” for the United States.
In fact, America already dominates: it is the world’s largest oil and gas producer, reaching record levels of oil under Biden.
Because America was not the saint of climate in the first place. The average American consumes more energy and emits more greenhouse gases than anyone in most other countries, including China and Russia.
Demand is booming, as the network races to keep up with power-hungry AI data centers.
Oil production has reached record levels under Biden, who has also bankrolled a highly polluting war in Gaza. It has long been stingy with climate financing for developing countries and has been slow to meet emissions reduction targets.
One in four members (23%) of Congress — all Republicans — deny that humans are responsible for current climate changes, according to research by the Center for American Progress.
So America’s climate problems are much bigger than that Mr. Trumpeven though it is a product of them, will certainly not help.
America’s loss may be another’s gain
If he withdraws the United States from… Paris AgreementAbout 200 others remain committed, at least for now. This was tested at the COP29 climate summit in November, which many warned would be overshadowed by the recent US election.
Weak, even though the result wasthe operation survived.
The governments I spoke to there said they had been here before and were better prepared for the United States’ absence this time.
So do other leaders across the United States.
The US Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of conservatives representing half the population, still aims to meet Biden’s goal of cutting emissions by 61%, which he said Rushed before Trump’s inauguration.
“As the administration steps back, states, cities, and companies across the United States will continue to push climate action forward,” said Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO of the World Resources Institute.
“Make no mistake, America will remain deeply engaged in the global fight against climate change.”
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As for the IRA, a lot of the money has already been distributed, most of it to Republican states, where officials might resist if it tried to abolish it.
If he succeeds in eliminating some or all of the incentives, this would free up private investment that would otherwise be attracted by green projects in more ambitious countries like Mexico.
“America’s loss could be someone else’s gain,” says Tim Sahay of the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University.
As for drilling, regional opposition and a lengthy permitting regime could make it harder for him to, as he put it, “drill, baby, drill,” than he would like.
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Can the COP29 climate agreement be reached?
Brave face
Meanwhile, the global transition to clean energy is not only underway, it is “unstoppable,” say advocates such as Ed Miliband, the UK’s energy secretary.
Consider China, the world’s largest emitter, which produces wind and solar energy in greater quantities than the rest of the world combined.
Maybe the climate movement is just putting on a brave face when it says America is still in the fight.
Donald Trump’s impact on global climate efforts will be felt for years.
But the world under Trump’s leadership is unpredictable and inconsistent, and therein lies their hope.