It may feel as if the Democratic Party has a lot of work to do before it is ready to win the elections again. Its agenda seems to be exhausted. Her voters are disappointed. The politicians have struggled to mobilize a strong opposition to President Trump.
But tonight – and on many nights on Tuesday during the next few years – it may make the election results easy to forget the party’s problems.
Indeed, Democrats have done well in special elections since Mr. Trump’s inauguration. On average, they operated 12 percentage points before Kamala Harris showed 11 special elections, according to Data Gather Ball. This includes turning two reliable republics in Iowa and Pennsylvania.
It seems that the democratic power pattern is likely to continue today, when voters go in the first and sixth provinces in Florida to the polls to replace Matt Gitz and besieged national security advisor Michael Walz. Democrats are not expected to win these races, but there is every indication of a competitive race in the sixth province, as Mr. Trump won 30 points in November. Democrats have a greater reason to optimistic about the regularly prescribed elections to the Supreme Court of Wisconsin.
If you have been a reader for a long time, the democratic power in private and appropriate elections will not be a complete surprise. During the Trump era, Democrats were distinguished in the low -popular elections, as it seems that the party is better among the most regular voters. This force is partially attributed to the party’s advantages among university graduates, but the feature is deeper than the demographics.
It seems that the outstanding democratic turnout is behind the party’s strength again. In the Florida private elections, early vote was more democratic-although it tends to the Republic in general, given the era of provinces-what it was in November, according to the voters’ records that my colleagues analyzed. There is no party registration data in Wisconsin, but our estimates indicate that the first voters contained in democracy than they were last November, and they had supported Mrs. Harris with more than 20 points.
During the past few years, we have repeatedly emphasized that the democratic force in these special elections does not necessarily mean much of the elections with great turnout. After all, it is driven by the flaming of the voters who are very engaged and who are active in “resistance” of Mr. Trump. They have numbers to swing private voters, but not the high -transition presidential elections. For example: Through our estimates, the voters who turned in the former Supreme Court races in the state of Wisconsin since 2016 have supported Mrs. Harris to Mr. Trump-although Mr. Trump carried the state in 2024-simply because more voters in Harris would have happened in these low elections.
It is worth repeating this warning observation: Nothing about today’s results will change that the Democratic Party has major problems, from major messages in messages and politics questions to its conflicts between the specific demographic groups, such as young people and voters without whites.
However, the continuous democratic power in the special elections is worth noting. Immediately, it will be the reminder that the Democrats, despite their challenges, may win a lot of elections between now and November 2028. Mr. Trump praises many opposition from the voters who are very participating, and many Republicans will lose as a result.
This should not necessarily be a big surprise – this is what happened in Mr. Trump’s first state, after all. But until recently, Mr. Trump’s second term did not necessarily feel as if he would necessarily reveal like his first. His first victory brought clear signs of democratic “resistance”. He brought his second victory talking about “Fabbi’s” and Democrats “playing dead”. While there are already many differences between his victories, it turned out that the possibility of voting for Democrats is not among them.
In fact, the power of Democrats in the private elections so far this year is very similar to their strength in 2017 – and stronger than it was during the years of Biden – according to the Earth’s accounts.
The realization of the Republicans is very weak in the elections outside the year, not without a political result. Immediately, he has already contributed to the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw the nomination of Elise Stefanick to the United Nations ambassador. The party can no longer be confident that it will keep it strongly in its Republican seat in New York in special elections. With the presence of Republicans who hold such a majority in the House of Representatives, it is imagined that the pension and subsequent special elections will cost the party’s control of the House of Representatives even before 2026 elections, such as Elie McCon Dawson from the Silver Bulletin He indicates.
In the long run, the party’s problems can risk erosion of Mr. Trump’s support among Republicans in Congress. While the strength in private elections may not mean much for high -demand presidential elections, these races may mean something to the low -term medium. Certainly, it seemed this way in 2018 and 2022, when success and democratic flexibility predicted the strength of special elections.
Since Republican members are thinking about a difficult session, they may decide that it is in their interest to distinguish between themselves from the president.