Washington – Last week, President Trump suddenly pushed US foreign policy of an angle stones.
Nearly 80 years ago since the end of World War II, the United States has sponsored a military alliance with democracies in Europe, as a basis for deterring aggression from neighboring Russia.
The Biden administration’s support for Ukraine after the full invasion of Russia in 2022 was the most recent growth of this principle. The United States and its allies poured aid in Ukraine not for emotional reasons, but because they believed it was in their interest.
Last week, in the diplomatic equivalent of an earthquake, President Trump and his lieutenant moved away from Ukraine – one of the basic principles as well.
“In the midst of a global battle between Western liberal democracy and the authoritarian government … the United States replaced both sides,” said Stanford’s Democratic Researcher Francis Fukuyama.
An exaggerated voice? Consider evidence:
Trump praised Russian President Vladimir Putin – who banned the opposition and believed to have ordered the killing of prominent opponents – claiming “he wants peace.” Meanwhile, Trump mocked Ukrainian President Voludmir Zelinski as a “modestly successful comic” and “dictator”.
The most strange thing is that Trump accused Zelinski was blamed for the war, saying, “You shouldn’t start it.” (Of course, it was Putin who invaded Ukraine, not the other way around). It looked like a big, Trumping big lie – a story that was invented to justify the bias to Putin.
Defense Minister Beit Higseth announced a list of US concessions to Putin even before the negotiations began, and promised that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO and that Russia could keep all the Ukrainian lands that he seized. He also warned that the United States may completely withdraw from Europe.
European Vice President JD Vance present in their local policies, and told them that the greatest threat to their security is not Russia, but migration.
Foreign Minister Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and discovered “the amazing opportunities for partnership with the Russians”, including implicitly, including commercial projects that require the relaxation of US economic sanctions.
Treasury Secretary, Scott Bestky, submitted a request from Trump to pay the United States $ 500 billion, and more than twice the amount of aid provided by the United States, and gave American companies access to lithium and other strategic minerals. It was not clear what it was, if anything, you will get Ukraine in return, but it seems that it will not include what Zelinski wants more – an American security guarantee against Russian invasions in the future.
Not surprisingly, Zelensky rejected the offer. Trump, who apparently forgot about negotiating real estate deals, erupted on social media: “Zelensky moves better quickly or will not leave a country.”
Add everything to a wonderful week to Putin.
“If you had told me just three months ago that these were the words of the American president, I would have laughed loudly,” Putin wrote, and former President Dmitry Medvedev on X about the attacks on Zelinski. “Trump is 200 percent right.”
The question now is if anything will not give up on Putin – and whether anything will do to ensure the independence of Ukraine.
A simple shooting stop will not be enough. For Putin, the endeavor to control Ukraine was not a temporary motivation; It is his life. It has already announced the inclusion of the Crimea and four other Ukrainian regions. He never hidden his ambition to accommodate the rest of Ukraine, or at least turning it into a Russian satellite.
If 80 % of unrestricted Ukraine will remain independent in the face of pressure from its strong neighbor, it will need help from the United States and European countries.
But Trump has never relied on a long -term commitment to defending Ukraine.
“What I think is more striking … it is the lack of management about providing support to Ukraine,” said Russian researcher Stephen Sinstovic.
“Their concentration is largely at the end of the fighting, with the potential inclusion that they see it as an end to American participation,” said Sinstovic, a fellow of the Foreign Relations Council. “They didn’t really think about what it would take to get a settled settlement.”
Trump carried a campaign to end the war and said he intended to work as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, but he seemed so far like a Putin wing man.
It should not be a surprise. Trump has long expressed Putin’s admiration, although he – or perhaps – is a brutal dictator.
Often the points of talking about Putin about Ukraine were often the points of Putin; It was quoted as saying that Ukraine is not a “real state.”
He has long carried a grudge against Zelinski, the democratically elected, to refuse his demand to publicly investigate the Ukrainian commercial transactions of Joy Biden and his family before the 2020 US elections. This episode, which prevented Trump 400 million dollars from the promised military aid of Ukraine, led to his first isolation, in 2019 .
All of these factors persuaded Charles Copeshan, another researcher at the Council of Foreign Relations, that the permanent peace agreement is unlikely.
“I am skeptical that we will get a peace agreement,” he said. “I think we may stop the ceasefire, which then leads to a frozen conflict.”
This would give Putin at least half of the victory. He said he would maintain the Ukrainian lands that he has already invaded. He can continue his efforts to increase Russian influence over weak Ukraine. It can search for sanctions from the United States and open the way to deal with American companies.
He studied other endangered democracies – the Baltic countries, which are threatened by Russia; Taiwan, threatens China; South Korea, which is threatened by North Korea – is that you cannot rely on the United States to support you.
At least, not if the President of the United States admires the strong and adjacent man.