Likewise, it is possible to calculate the effect of emissions during a limited number of years. For example, Calhaan and Mankin noted that the internal oil company’s research indicates that climate change will be a problem in 1980, and to calculate the effects of emissions that occurred after people knew it was a problem. Therefore, the approach is very flexible.
From there, researchers can use experimental information that links high temperatures with economic damage. “The last action that the peer has reviewed has used the record economy to infer causal relations between climate risk and results such as income loss, low agricultural returns, increased human deaths, and depressed economic growth,” Kalhan and Mankin wrote. These scales can be used to estimate the cost of things such as floods, crop loss, and other economic damage. Alternately, researchers can analyze the effect on individual climate events where financial costs have been calculated separately.
Huge damage
To implement their method, researchers make a lot of individual models, provide the most likely costs and the potential group around them. First, they translate the emissions of each company into influencing the average global surface temperature. This is translated into an effect on maximum temperatures, which leads to an estimate that will look at the five most temperature days. This, in turn, translated into the economic damage associated with severe heat.
Calhaan and Mankin uses Chevron as an example. By 2020, Chevron’s emissions were responsible for 0.025 degrees Celsius of warming that year. If you have a similar analysis between the ears between 1991 and 2020, researchers reach a set of damage of about $ 800 billion for $ 3.6 trillion. Most of the damage damaged by states in tropical regions.
They continued through the five companies that led to most of the carbon emissions, and they calculate that both Aramco, Saudi Arabia, Gazprom, Chevron, and Exxon Mobile, have all produced about $ 2 trillion. BP brings the back, with “just” $ 1.45 trillion of damage. For a full list of 111 carbon specialization, Calhaan and Mankin puts the total damage of about $ 28 trillion.