One in four properties may be at risk of flooding by 2050

Around eight million properties in England – or one in four – could be at risk of flooding by 2050 with the risk increasing due to climate change, the Environment Agency (EA) said.

In its first assessment of how a warming world will affect flooding, the EA warns of growing threats from heavier rainfall and rising sea levels.

The number of properties at risk may be higher if more homes are built on floodplains, but may be lower if flood defenses are improved.

Currently, 6.3 million properties are considered at risk from flooding, new figures show, which is higher than previously thought.

Julie Foley, director of flood risk strategy at the Environment Agency, said: “The frequency and severity of the kind of flood events we are facing is likely to become more and more difficult.”

EA considers floods from three main sources: rivers, marine waters and surface waters – where heavy rainfall overwhelms them.

It defines properties as “at risk” when the annual chance of flooding is greater than one in 1,000.

Currently, the EA says 4.6 million homes and businesses are at risk of surface flooding, with the region most affected.

That’s a 43% rise on its previous estimate, but that’s almost entirely due to improving data sets and computer modeling techniques, rather than a real-world increase in flood risk.

However, the EA says climate change could raise the number of properties at risk of surface flooding to about 6.1 million by mid-century.

It is well documented that A A warming world generally increases the intensity of heavy rainfall.

Between October 2023 and March 2024, for example, the amount of rainfall on the UK’s windiest days Increased by 20% on average due to climate change.

The report also highlights the increasing risk of flooding from rivers and the sea – from 2.4 million properties today to around 3.1 million by mid-century.

The East Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber and south-east England are particularly at risk.

This type of flooding—from rivers bursting their banks or storm surges bringing seawater ashore—can be particularly harmful because they often bring deeper floodwaters.

Wet winters increase the chances of river flooding, while rising sea levels make coastal flooding more likely.

Global sea levels are rising mainly due to a combination of glaciers and ice sheets, and the fact that warmer water takes up more space. They are expected to continue to rise for centuries to come.

Average sea levels across the UK have already risen by around 20cm since 1900, with most of this occurring since 1990.

This also has implications for coastal erosion – the displacement of land along coastlines due to wave action.

The UK already has some of the fastest eroding coastlines in Europe.

But climate change could increase the number of properties at risk of being effectively lost to the sea to nearly 20,000 by 2100, even if adequate shoreline management plans are put in place.

That would be 3500 from now and the middle of the century.

This report only looks at how climate change will affect future flood risk.

There are many other factors, from construction on floodplains to improvements to flood defences, that could shape the effects of future floods.

Thanks in part to the Defense Barrier Flood Defense, for example, London is currently at less risk of flooding from rivers and the sea than some other areas.

But there have been repeated warnings that the UK is poorly prepared for the impacts of a changing climate.

Earlier this year, the cross-party MPS Committee warned that the government had Existing flood defenses have not been maintained or adequately built. Lack of funding was a major issue.

In response to today’s report, Floods Minister Emma Hardie admitted that “too many communities are at risk of flooding”.

“That’s why we’ve committed £2.4 billion over the next two years to maintain, repair and build flood defenses to protect communities across the country,” she said.

Additional reporting by Jonah Fisher and Miho Tanaka; Erwan Revolt map