Benjamin Cowen says the price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) could mirror that of the Nasdaq exchange-traded fund (ETF) Invesco QQQ during the first 13 months following its launch some 26 years ago.
In a new video Quinn He tells His 855,000 YouTube subscribers reported that the QQQ ETF hit a local high after surging 150% in roughly one year after the ETF launched.
The QQQ ETF tracks the performance of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq.
As the major digital asset approaches its one-year anniversary since the launch of its spot Bitcoin ETF, Cowen says the crypto king could replicate a similar price action, although it is unlikely to “play exactly the same way.”
“In 1999, the QQQ ETF launched in March and rose from about $48 to $120. This rise from $48 to $120 took about 54 weeks – from $48 to $120…
…If you look at the Bitcoin spot ETF, it launched at around $48,000… If you look at the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, it went up to $48,000 instead of down like it did with QQQ [ETF]. But what is interesting is that after 54 weeks comes January 20 – Inauguration Day [of President-elect Donald Trump]which is interesting because 54 weeks after QQQ launched, it was 54 weeks later that QQQ’s price went from $48 to $120.
Now look at this, if I switch to Bitcoin on the daily time frame and connect these highs here [$99,600, $104,100 and $108,200] And just extending that, what’s amazing is if you get some sort of price tag and you move to January 20th and you go up to that trend line, it will put you at $120,000 which is exactly what QQQ did – it went from $48 to $120, 54 weeks later .
Cowen says that if Bitcoin’s price movement closely tracks that of the QQQ ETF in its first 13 months of existence, a 48% decline is likely.
“This is obviously very questionable, and obviously we know that QQQ got a big drop after that…
…What I’m interested in is that if Bitcoin found itself at $120,000 sometime in a few weeks, what would the reaction be there? And one possible outcome… basically what happened with QQQ is that after it hit $120, it saw a big drop to $63, which is a very big drop.
Bitcoin is trading at $101,484 at the time of writing.
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